Series Preview: Diamondbacks @ Astros
* PREVIEW: ARI @ HOU -- This evening, Arizona opens a three-game road series against the Astros, who roll into the weekend having won seven games in a row. Wins are wins, but the streak is less impressive considering it came in consecutive series sweeps against the Reds (53-68) and Giants (50-70). Our boys should put up more of a fight than those Sisters of the Poor, especially with Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson expected to take the mound in the series. In their meeting at Chase Field from April 28-30, the Diamondbacks took two of three from Houston.
* MATH CLASS -- The Astros have the same record as Arizona at 62-59, but they have been outscored 555-576 on the season. based on the Pythagorean expectation formula developed by Bill James to translate run differential into wins and losses, the 'Stros should be 58-63 on the year. With 549 runs scored to 526 runs allowed, the Diamondbacks project to a record of 63-58. Fans will remember that Arizona won the NL West last year with a record of 90-72, but were outscored 712 to 732 on the season -- a run differential resulting in an expected record of 79-83 under James's model.
* PHILOSOPHICAL DIFFERENCES -- DBN sees the Astros as among the most wrong-headed franchises in baseball. For years, they clung to Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, even though those players were clearly in decline. Maybe Houston fans will applaud the club's management for its loyalty -- and we can see a sentimental argument for keeping those icons around -- but Biggio and Bagwell were well below-average regulars in the final seasons of their careers. The Astros' aim seems to be putting fannies in the seats, a feat they propose to accomplish by signing "name" players on the downsides of their careers rather than by winning games. DBN acknowledges that it's a business, but we believe that engineering success on the field is the superior long term business strategy. If you build a winner, they will come. Thankfully, that philosophy is reflected in the Diamondbacks' overall approach, although throwing 3 years / $30M to fan-favorite Eric Byrnes more closely resembles the Houston style of management.
* GETTING NOWHERE FAST -- This year's marquee addition to the Astros is SS Miguel Tejada, the 2002 AL MVP who managed to age three years since the start of last season. With $26M remaining on a deal that runs through 2009, Tejada was acquired from Baltimore for the last crumbs of talent remaining in the virtually barren Houston farm system. The non-sensical move did nothing to address the Astros' most immediate problem, a risible pitching staff that has stunk it up with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP on the season. On the very day after the trade was announced, Tejada was implicated as a steroid-user in connection with the Mitchell Report. Way to do your due diligence, GM Ed Wade.
* HOME AWAY FROM HOME -- Houston-native Chris B. Young is an eye-popping .405 / .477 / .757 with four doubles and three homers in 37 lifetime at-bats against pitchers currently on the Astros roster. This despite going only 3-for-12 with a double, BB, 2 K, 2 R and a lone RBI in the HOU @ ARI series in April. In 2007, his first visit as a player to Minute Maid Park, CBY exploded for an ungodly output of 6-for-12, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, 3 K, .500 / .538 / 1.083.
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