Snakes Stake NL West Hopes on Dunn's Mighty Bat
Well, damn. Just when you thought the Diamondbacks had opted against a move for one of the big bats available on the trade market, they land the major league leader in home runs -- a week and a half past the trade deadline!
Kudos to Josh Byrnes and the front office crew for making the move to acquire Adam Dunn.
Arizona's offense, which surged after the All-Star Break, sputtered once again beginning with the July 31-August 3 series in Los Angeles. In splitting a four game set with their closest division rivals, the Diamondbacks scored a grand total of nine runs. They managed to exceed that pace in subsequent series against the woeful Pirates and Braves, but Arizona bats could not put enough runs on the board to avoid a 3-4 home stand.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have added a formidable hitter in Manny Ramirez, whose scorching hot bat may yet carry them past Arizona in the NL West. The trade for Dunn is a direct answer to the challenge laid down by LA.
The fit is not ideal for the Diamondbacks. Limited to the OF corners and 1B, and not especially good at any of those positions, Dunn will require a reshuffling of the defensive alignment as he is integrated into the squad. His best position (read: the one at which he is the least of a liability) is LF, where Conor Jackson has just begun to get comfortable.
Whether Dunn plays LF or 1B into September, the player most likely to see a reduction in playing time is Chad Tracy. Finally healthy after a long recovery from micro-fracture surgery on his knee, Tracy was in top form in July, batting .351 / .386 / .532 as the primary 1B. Through nine August games, he has hit only .136 / .200 / .182.
Although the club is light on left-handed hitters, Tracy will have to step up his play in order to avoid riding the pines once Justin Upton is ready to return from a minor league rehab stint. Playing his first game in over a month Monday night, Upton went 2-for-5 with a pair of singles, a run and a strikeout as the DH for AAA Tucson.
Until Upton is ready to return, Dunn will likely play RF for the Diamondbacks. His arm is sub-par for RF duty, but by playing that position he will allow Jackson to remain in LF and Tracy at 1B.
Frankly, while Dunn is a problematic defender, he was not targeted for his glove. It's the bat that should make a major impact, to the tune of 32 HR and a .233 / .373 / .528 line to date. Sure, he's a windmill, with 120 strikeouts already on the season. But the whiffs can be excused, to a degree, when they come with Dunn's truly massive power. Further off-setting the Ks is the fact that Dunn has drawn 80 walks on the season -- a mark that ties him with Albert Pujols and leaves him just three behind Pat Burrell for the major league lead.
While you'd like for Dunn to make better contact, his substantial offensive contributions cannot be ignored. Dunn works counts and has the prodigious power that opposing pitchers fear. His poor average is a glaring weakness, but with a glance at his .901 OPS his value to the offense can be appreciated. The cool kids know that batting average is so passé.
Jackson (.311 / .390 / .487), Arizona's best hitter on the year, should benefit the most from Dunn's presence in the lineup. Rather than risking a confrontation with Dunn, pitchers may take their chances with Jackson, who should see plenty more pitches to hit from the No. 3 hole vacated by Orlando Hudson. With Dunn's imposing presence in the clean-up spot behind him, Jackson will continue to pace the Diamondbacks' offense.
The biggest unknown at this point is what exactly Adam Dunn will cost the Diamondbacks. We know that Dallas Buck, a Tommy John-surgery survivor pitching at A+ Visalia, is in the package. We know the Reds are picking up a portion of the $4M remaining on Dunn's contract. We know that the Diamondbacks will receive draft pick compensation if Dunn leaves as a free agent after the season. What we do not yet know are the identities of the two players-to-be-named-later included in the trade.
The mystery men are likely players on the 40-man roster, who cannot be delivered to the Reds until after the regular season unless they pass through waivers unclaimed. One chilling scenario, suggested by the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro, would involve the trade of Diamondbacks' 2007 1st-round draft pick Jarrod Parker. With apologies to Max Scherzer, Parker is arguably Arizona's best prospect still in the minor leagues. Although he is not on the 40-man roster, Parker is ineligible to be dealt until one year after he signed his professional contract and would have to be treated as a PTBNL at least until August 15.
The Diamondbacks reportedly refused to include either Scherzer or Parker in a deal for Mark Teixeira, whom the Braves shipped to the Angels shortly before the non-waiver trade deadline. It's hard to believe that Arizona would be more willing to move one of the jewels of their farm system for Dunn. Despite his potent combination of on-base skills and power, Dunn cannot match Teixeira as a hitter or defender. The Dodgers' deal for Manny may have altered the Diamondbacks' thinking, but we are unlikely to know for certain until after the season.
For the team and the fans, the only thing to do now is focus on the remainder of the 2008 season. Dunn makes the Diamondbacks' lineup far more explosive than it was without him. Arizona plays its next six games on the road in Colorado and Houston, so we should not have to wait long for the fireworks to begin.
1 responses to this Post, with 1 unique participants
HR Leader Moving to Hitters Park
Dunn should thrive in his new confines of Chase Field. If Dunn ends the season as the league leader in HR's then the Dbacks stand a good chance of holding off the Dodgers for a second straight division title. While we add another guy who will strike out quite a bit, at least it comes with proven production and from the left side of the dish too. Nice.